The push for a peace plan may be a sign of desperation from Russia in response to a change in Ukraine's Strategic Strike capability since March 2025.
Up until March 2025, there have been a few items published that share a common theme about the end of the war in Ukraine.
Specifically:
- 22nd October, 2024: The Main Directorate of Intelligence (Ukraine) estimates the war will end between late 2025 and early 2026 based on their own data analysis.
- 22nd December, 2024: The IMF predicts an end to the War in Ukraine between late 2025 and mid-2026 for financial reasons.
- 27th February, 2025: The Main Directorate of Intelligence (Ukraine) asserted that Russia believes they need to end the War in Ukraine by 2026 for geopolitical reasons.
- 12th March, 2025: The Washington Post reports that the a document for FSB (Russia) consumption (Russia) recommends no ceasefire until 2026.
- 27th March, 2025: At a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, The head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency stated, words to the effect, that Russia is having serious trouble prosecuting the war and will run out of steam altogether by the end of the year provided western support is maintained.
Notice a pattern here? Each item has different reasons for the war in Ukraine to end no later than 2026, and all still have 2026 as a year where this war could end.
Now with the change in Ukraine strategic strike capability Russia looks desperate to end the war before the end of 2025.