Manpower and R52 Data - 5 SEP 2025

For the first time since I started tracking rolling 52 week data (R52), the area taken per day (R52) decreased:

-          From 13.49 sq km on 29 August 2025

-          To 13.37 sq km on 5 September 2025

As a result forecast additional losses to take 50% of Ukraine has increased:

-          From 17,740,807 on 29 August 2025

-          To 17,768,693 on 5 September 2025

If this trend persists, then Russia may not have enough manpower to take even 50% of Ukraine. The 5 SEP 2025 forecasts suggests required manpower of about 17 million and Peter Zeihan estimates Russia’s available manpower at 7 million just after the start of the war and Zeihan cites Russian statistics (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6mXqOk63Ss).

If this trend becomes significant over the next 8 weeks then I will post another update.