Ukraine Victory Data

DATE: 24 MAR 2025

In the last 6 months there have been a few items published that share a common theme about the end of the war in Ukraine. Specifically:

- 22^nd October, 2024: The Main Directorate of Intelligence (Ukraine) estimates the war will end between late 2025 and early 2026 based on their own data analysis.

- 22^nd December, 2024: The IMF predicts an end to the War in Ukraine between late 2025 and mid-2026 for financial reasons.

- 27^th February, 2025: The Main Directorate of Intelligence (Ukraine) asserted that Russia believes they need to end the War in Ukraine by 2026 for geopolitical reasons.

- 12^th March, 2025: The Washington Post reports that the a document for FSB (Russia) consumption (Russia) recommends no ceasefire until 2026.

Notice a pattern here? Each item has different reasons for the war in Ukraine to end by 2026, and all still have 2026 as a year where this war could end.

Some further examination may reveal why the document intended for the FSB may suggest 2026. Forecasts from Ukraine Victory Data (UVD), even initial if Tank inventory is adjusted upward by 2000 tanks (very optimistic), there would still be no tanks left by the end of 2025. Net losses of tanks per day is 7.6 as at 21 MAR 2025.

What does UVD have to contribute to this conversation. If we look at the forecast for 21 MAR 2025 we have the following:

1) The forecast for Russia to reach critical levels of Artillery is 18^th May, 2026. Tanks and Armored Combat Vehicles reach critical levels before this date.

- https://ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/remaining-equipment-all-data-21-mar-2025/

Note that critical levels is where Russia has no reserves and is operating only from production per month for Artillery, Tanks, and Armored Combat Vehicles.

2) The day by day graph forecast for 21 MAR 2025 also shows a similar date around Mid-2026 (Figure 1).

- https://ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/losses-area-forecast-charts-equipment-21-mar-2025/

Figure 1: Day by Day Forecast of Remaining Equipment

Consider the trend in net losses (Figure 2). It has remained the same since the baseline of 5th Jan, 2024 or gotten worse over time. Net losses for Artillery in particular has increased from 10.00 per day for the 5th JAN 2024 baseline to 19.43 per day for 21 MAR 2025. It is not getting better for Russia. Why such an increase, this will be the subject of another article talking about the D-word.

What about Ukrainian Military Aid. Analysis by the youtube channel Perun on 20th January 2025 does suggest that equipment inventory for Tanks, Artillery, and Armored Combat Vehicles has remained constant since the start of the war.

We have the two assessments from Main Directorate of Intelligence (Ukraine) and data analysis from UVD pointing to an end to the war in mid-2026. Does this explain the real reason why Russia may not want a ceasefire until 2026? i.e. because they believe they cannot conduct any meaningful military operations operate after 2025 due to the lack of necessary equipment (Artillery, Tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles).

Figure 2: Net Losses per Day for Equipment

Unless there is some dramatic shift in the dynamics of the war in terms of military aid (including intelligence), economic aid, military organisation, or military strategy, it seems that the chances of this war ending in mid-2026 are significant. Note that Chuck Pfarrer has mentioned from time to time, words to the effect, that he expects this war to continue until 2028, this looks very likely as a worst-case scenario.

Some consideration should be given to the dynamics of the war and there are a variety of sources that deal with this much better than UVD. The information sources page does provide some links that may help (https://ukrainevictorydata.org/information-sources/).

UVD may make some contributions to this space to help summarise some aspects of the change in dynamics and also highlight any significant developments that may impact the forecasts and historical data analysis done by UVD.

If you have made it this far, thank you for reading this.