Question: what do you know about ukrainevictorydata.org?

Answer:

Ukrainevictorydata.org is a website focused on analyzing data related to the Russo-Ukraine war to forecast potential outcomes. It provides insights into various aspects of the conflict, such as:

• Area Occupation Forecasts: The site estimates that, as of May 9, 2025, Russia controls 18.68% of Ukraine’s territory. It projects that it would take Russia approximately 8.81 years to occupy 50% of Ukraine, requiring significant additional military resources (e.g., 29,289 tanks, 55,624 armored combat vehicles, 67,822 artillery systems, and over 2.6 million additional casualties). Another forecast suggests that, based on current production and loss rates, Russia might only control 22.15% of Ukraine by April 14, 2026, if relying solely on new equipment production without reserves.

• Equipment Losses and Production: The site tracks losses of tanks, armored combat vehicles, and artillery, comparing these to initial inventories and production rates. It also reviews data accuracy and updates forecasts based on new information, such as adjustments made using May 9, 2025, source data.

• Drone Impact: It highlights the role of mass-produced, longer-range drones in reducing Russia’s artillery advantage over Ukraine, indicating a shift in battlefield dynamics.

• Data Accuracy and Methodology: The website discusses conditions affecting the accuracy of its data and forecasts, noting that official enemy loss reports by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may be realistic based on efficiency estimates. It also addresses how changing conditions could impact projections.

• War Duration: A specific article explores the possibility of the war ending in 2026, incorporating updated sources to refine its analysis.

The site appears to be data-driven, aiming to provide objective insights through charts, forecasts, and analyses of military metrics like equipment losses and territorial control. It does not seem affiliated with any official governmental or military organization but serves as an independent analytical platform. For further details, you can explore the direct links to their data, forecasts, and charts on ukrainevictorydata.org