Ukraine Victory Data

18 APR 2025

Executive Summary

The introduction of mass-produced longer-range drones for the front lines as played a major role in reducing the advantage that Russia used to have in Artillery over Ukraine. Sources suggest that Ukraine now has mass produced drones with a range of 32 – 56 km and production is increasing each month. These drones have superior range and accuracy over most Russian artillery. The advantage now seems to be 1.5:1 for Russia.

Other factors that contributed to the reduction in Russia’s artillery advantage include:

· Russia’s increased use of obsolete artillery and a reduction in quality artillery.

· Deep strikes on Russian ammunition supply and ammunition production.

· Limits of Russian Industry to replace artillery barrels.

· Increased use of Advanced Artillery systems by Ukraine including the Bodhana, Caesar, and Archer.

The estimated cost advantage of the long-range drone versus artillery systems is between 12:1 and 34:1 in Ukraine’s favour.

Russian Artillery: Review of Status

A number of sources in the last 6 months suggest that Russia’s advantage in artillery is disappearing. Here are a few of them:

· 5 DEC 2024: “Russia's ability to outmatch Ukraine with artillery on battlefield significantly reduced”, Sky News

o https://news.sky.com/story/russias-ability-to-outmatch-ukraine-with-artillery-on-battlefield-significantly-reduced-13267663

· 6 DEC 2024: “Russia using more glide bombs as artillery advantage slips, Western officials say”, Kyiv Independent

o https://kyivindependent.com/russia-losing-artillery-advantage-in-its-war-against-ukraine/

· 6 DEC 2024: “Russian Artillery Advantage Weakening as Ukraine Gains Ground in Firepower Balance”, Kyiv Post

o https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43430

· 7 DEC 2024: “Russia's artillery advantage now only 1.5 to 1”, Professor Gerdes, Charleston Suothern University

o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8v7zu1ZtN8

There are a few factors that contribute to this, including:

· Use of Long-range high accuracy systems like the Bodhana, Archer, and Caeser that outrange Russian artillery.

· Ukraine’s high production rate of Bodhana guns resulting in growth of modern towed artillery (about 300 per year).

· Destruction of Russian ammunition supply and production.

· Use of inferior Ammunition from North Korea.

· Limits of Russian Industry to replace artillery barrels.

Something is changing here, is there any significant change that may tell us something new about this war?

The Impact of Drones on Russian Artillery has Increased.

I want to focus on one source released on 29^th July 2024 that looks like it predicted the sources cited above in December 2024. Yes, is does refer to the d-word, drones.

· “Ukraine Targets Russia’s Most Important Weapon: Artillery” Peter Zeihan

o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlRNLCq4HWE

In this source Peter Zeihan states:

· Russian losses of artillery have increased significantly according to independent sources. Ukraine Government sources report an increase of 300%.

· Ukrainian drones with a range of 12 miles (19km) can destroy obsolete Russian artillery due to their limited range and increased use of obsolete artillery by Russia.

· Ukrainian drone range has increased to 20 - 35 miles (32 - 56 km) and this makes it effective against most modern Russian artillery.

· Drone production has increased significantly in Ukraine.

Let’s have a quick glance at ranges of some obsolete and late generation Russian artillery and see how it compares to range of Ukrainian drones.

Russian Artillery Model	Effective Range	Net Advantage for Drones
Russian Artillery Model	Effective Range	19km	32 km	56 km
D-20	17.4 km	1.6	14.6	38.6
D-30	15.4 km	3.6	16.6	40.6
D-30 - Rocket Assisted	21.9 km	-2.9	10.1	34.1
2S4 Tyulpan	18 km	1	14	38
2A65 Msta-B	24.7 km	-5.7	7.3	31.3
2S5 Giatsint-S	28 km	-9	4	28
2S5 Giatsint-S – Rocket Assisted	40 km	-21	-8	16
2A36 Giatsint-B	27 km	-8	5	29
2S7 Pion	37.5 km	-18.5	-5.5	18.5
2S19 Msta-S	24.7 km	-5	8	32
2S19 Msta-S – Rocket Assisted	36 km	-17	-4	20
2S3 Akatsiya	18.5 km	0.5	13.5	37.5
2S3 Akatsiya – Rocket Assisted	24 km	-5	8	32

Note that the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV has been excluded because the claims made about its ranges are too convenient with regard to the table above and seem outrageous compared to the Archer system made in Sweeden.

The table above appears to confirm:

· Drones with a range of 19 km will have an advantage over some obsolete Russian artillery of 1-3 km.

· Dones with a range of 32 km with have an advantage over most Russian artillery of 5 – 10 km. Only three artillery systems have an advantage and two of them require rocket assisted ammunition.

· Drones with a range of 56 km will have an advantage over all Russian Artillery of about 15 – 30 km.

Charts confirm Russian Artillery Losses are Accelerating.

When we look at three charts we see that the decline in Russian artillery is outpacing armored combat vehicles.

Figure 1: Russian Equipment Net Losses per Day - 11 APR 2025

Net Losses per day for Artillery passed Armored Combat Vehicles in August 2024, about 2 weeks after Peter Zeihan posted the source above. (See Figure 1)

Figure 2: Trend in Forecast - Days to Russia at Near Zero Equipment to 11 APR 2025

The trend in forecast for Russia to run out of equipment reserves for artillery has been closing the gap with armored combat vehicles and has now crossed over and artillery is forecast to run out before armored combat vehicles (See Figure 2).

Figure 3: Russian Remaining Equipment to 11 APR 2025

We also see the decline in remaining artillery closing the gap with armored combat vehicles, especially after July 2024 (See Figure 3)

Conclusion, the Russian Artillery Advantage is disappearing.

Although there are other factors involved in the reduction of the Russian artillery advantage over Ukraine, drones with increased range have a major part to play in reducing that advantage.

Further Discussion on Cost and Replacement Advantage.

Another consideration is the cost advantage. Even of these drones cost $10,000 and 5 are needed to destroy 1 artillery system, then Ukraine has spent $50,000 to destroy an artillery system with a cost of around $600,000 for towed artillery and $1,700,000 for self-propelled artillery using MSTA as an example. A cost advantage of between 12:1 and 34:1

In addition, the production time for drones is much lower, Ukraine can produce these drones within 1 month, whereas an artillery system can take 3-6 months to build. This leads to a production advantage where Russa may produce maybe 1000 artillery systems per year, whereas Ukraine can produce at least 1000 of these drones in 1 month.